Hurricane Isaias has strengthened into the season's first major huricane, and while the greatest risk from this storm is for those in the Gulf Coast states, we do believe some impacts will be felt in the Boston weather forecast.
Isaias is now a category 3 hurricane with wind speeds up to 120 mph. Its location is less than 200 miles south of Pensacola, Florida.
Hurricane warnings are in effect from Ocean Springs, Mississippi, eastward to the Bay/Gulf county line in Florida. There are tropical storm warnings westward to parts of Louisiana and farther eastward into Florida.
The current National Hurricane Center forecast track takes the center of Isaias very close to Pensacola later Friday night.
This track will bring life-threatening storm surge and destructive winds for much of the western panhandle region.
The peak rain and wind will occur from Friday evening through the overnight hours.
Should Isaias retain its category 3 status up through landfall (which is possible), wind gusts near the Florida panhandle coastline could reach well over 100 mph.
Up to 4-8" of rain are likely from the coastline through a few hundred miles northward, including Atlanta with isolated areas receiving up to 10".
As is the case with all tropical systems, Isaias will rapidly deteriorate as it heads inland.
Isaias will be downgraded to a tropical storm on Saturday and just a remnant low pressure area later in the weekend.
The remnants are forecast to bring rain up through the Mississippi Valley and then, eventually, through the Northeast.
So, what does this mean for us here in New England?
During the day on Saturday, the outer shield of high clouds will enter our area.
Saturday still looks like a great day, the cirrus clouds will just occasionally dim the sunshine a bit.
Clouds will thicken rapidly Sunday morning, and the rain will arrive later Sunday afternoon and evening and linger into the first half of Monday.
Currently, it looks like we may clear out later in the day Monday.
Rainfall totals in southern New England will be largely between .5" and 1.0"
We do not expect any significant wind or other impacts in the Northeast.
One last thought: This has been a record slow hurricane season in the Atlantic.
Largely thanks to a very strong El Nino, this is the latest in the season we have gone before the formation of the first hurricane.
The prior record was Sept. 11 set back in 2002 and 2013.
We still may break the record for least hurricanes in a single season (in the satellite era). The current record is two hurricanes back in 1983 and 2013.
